Firefly Aerospace Inc. Fair Value Disclosure
9. Fair Value Measurement
The Company measures its financial assets and liabilities at fair value each reporting period using a fair value hierarchy that prioritizes the use of observable inputs and minimizes the use of unobservable inputs when measuring fair value. A financial instrument’s classification within the fair value hierarchy is based on the lowest level of input that is significant to the fair value measurement.
The Company uses the market approach to measure fair value for its financial assets and liabilities. The market approach uses prices and other relevant information generated by market transactions involving identical or comparable assets or liabilities.
The carrying amounts of Company’s financial instruments, which include cash equivalents, accounts receivable, accounts payable, and certain prepaid expenses, other current assets. accrued liabilities and other current liabilities approximate fair value because of their short-term maturities.
The Company issued warrants to purchase Series J Preferred Stock (the “Series J Warrants”) in connection with the Company’s entrance into the Term Loans and issued warrants to purchase common stock (the “Common Warrants”, together with the “Series J Warrants”, the “Warrants”) and two tranche obligations: (1) the RPM Call Option and (2) the Majority Sponsor Top-Up (both as defined in Note 13. Stockholders’ Equity (Deficit) and Redeemable Convertible Preferred Stock) in connection with the Company’s issuance of the Series D-1 Preferred Stock. The Company determined that the Warrants and tranche obligations should be classified as either liabilities or assets on the consolidated balance sheets depending on valuation and are recorded at fair value both initially and subsequently, with changes in fair value recorded through earnings.
In connection with the execution of the Financing Agreement and issuance of the Term Loans, the Company issued to the Lenders (as defined in Note 11. Notes Payable) detachable Series J Warrants to purchase an aggregate of 0.6 million shares of Series J Preferred Stock with a 10-year term and an exercise price of $21.1725 per share (subject to certain adjustments). The Series J Warrants are classified as liabilities as they embody an obligation to repurchase the Company’s equity. The Series J Warrants are measured at fair value both initially and subsequently with changes in fair value recognized through earnings.
The Warrants were recorded within warrant liability, the RPM Call Option was recorded within other current liabilities, and the Majority Sponsor Top-Up was recorded within other current assets on the consolidated balance sheet as of December 31, 2024. In March 2025, the Majority Sponsor Top-Up expired unexercised when the total amount of Series D-1 Preferred Stock purchased by investors exceeded $250.0 million. On March 24, 2025, the RPM Call Option was terminated via amendment of the Series D stock purchase agreement. As a result, the $0.2 million Majority Sponsor Top-Up and $4.2 million RPM Call Option were derecognized from the consolidated balance sheet, and recognized in other income, net in the consolidated statement of net loss and comprehensive loss for the year ended December 31, 2025.
In connection with the IPO, the Common Warrants were net exercised into 1.0 million shares of common stock. The Series J Warrants remain outstanding and continue to be classified as liabilities and remeasured at fair value as of December 31, 2025.
Prior to the Company’s IPO on August 8, 2025, the Company used a Monte Carlo simulation model and probability weighted valuations based on different scenarios including change of control, IPO and default scenarios to value the Warrants. The value per Warrant under the change of control scenario was the average value per unit under 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations, the value per Warrant under the IPO scenario was based on the number of common stock equivalent shares (including the Warrants) and total estimated equity value of the Company, and the value per Warrant under the default scenario was assumed to be zero.
The Company used a Black-Scholes option-pricing valuation model to value the Series J Warrants as of December 31, 2025. The following table presents the key inputs applied in the valuation of the Series J Warrants:
|
December 31, 2025 |
|
||
Common stock price |
$ |
|
22.37 |
|
Exercise price for the Series J Warrants |
$ |
|
21.17 |
|
Risk-free rate |
|
3.94%-4.01% |
|
|
Volatility |
|
92.5%-97.5% |
|
|
Term (years) |
|
7.55-8.39 |
|
|
Black-Scholes value (per share) |
$ |
19.00-19.06 |
|
|
Number of warrants |
|
|
646 |
|
Value of Series J Warrants |
$ |
|
12,294 |
|
The following tables present the key inputs applied in the valuation of the Series J Warrants as of December 31, 2024:
|
|
December 31, 2024 |
|
|||||||||
|
|
Change of |
|
|
IPO |
|
|
Default |
|
|||
Average value per Series J Warrant |
|
$ |
8.43 |
|
|
$ |
2.86 |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
Event weighting |
|
|
55 |
% |
|
|
15 |
% |
|
|
30 |
% |
Weighted-average value per Series J Warrant |
|
$ |
4.64 |
|
|
$ |
0.43 |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
Total probability weighted-average value per Series J Warrant |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
5.07 |
|
||
The following tables present the key inputs applied in the valuation of the Common Warrants as of December 31, 2024:
|
|
December 31, 2024 |
|
|||||||||
|
|
Change of |
|
|
IPO |
|
|
Default |
|
|||
Value per Common Warrant on a marketable basis |
|
$ |
0.98 |
|
|
$ |
7.03 |
|
|
|
— |
|
Discount for lack of marketability |
|
|
40 |
% |
|
|
20 |
% |
|
N/A |
|
|
Value per Common Warrant on a non-marketable basis |
|
$ |
0.59 |
|
|
$ |
5.62 |
|
|
— |
|
|
Event weighting |
|
|
55 |
% |
|
|
15 |
% |
|
|
30 |
% |
Weighted value per Common Warrant |
|
$ |
0.32 |
|
|
$ |
0.84 |
|
|
|
— |
|
Total probability weighted value per Common Warrant |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$ |
1.16 |
|
||
The Company used a Black-Scholes option-pricing valuation model to value the RPM Call Option. The following table presents the key inputs applied in the valuation of the RPM Call Option as of December 31, 2024:
|
|
December 31, 2024 |
|
|
Weighted-average Series D Preferred Stock price |
|
$ |
16.53 |
|
Exercise price for the RPM Option |
|
$ |
16.92 |
|
Risk-free rate |
|
|
4.27 |
% |
Volatility |
|
|
60 |
% |
Term (years) |
|
|
0.36 |
|
Black-Scholes value (per share) |
|
$ |
2.29 |
|
Number of units |
|
|
1,820 |
|
Value of RPM Option |
|
$ |
4,159 |
|
The Company used a forward pricing valuation model to value the Majority Sponsor Top-Up. The following table presents the key inputs applied in the valuations of the Majority Sponsor Top-Up as of December 31, 2024:
|
|
December 31, 2024 |
|
|
Amount subject to the Majority Sponsor Top-Up |
|
$ |
20,198 |
|
Contractual purchase price for Series D Preferred Stock (per share) |
|
$ |
16.92 |
|
Weighted-average Series D Preferred Stock price |
|
$ |
16.53 |
|
Risk-free rate |
|
|
4.27 |
% |
Term (years) |
|
|
0.36 |
|
Discount factor |
|
|
0.9849 |
|
Value of forward obligation (per share) |
|
$ |
(0.14 |
) |
Number of units subject to purchase by majority sponsor |
|
|
1,194 |
|
Value of Majority Sponsor Top-Up |
|
$ |
(170 |
) |
The Company did not issue any Warrants during the year ended December 31, 2025. The fair value remeasurement of the Series J Warrants resulted in an increase in fair value of $9.4 million during the year December 31, 2025.
The Company recognized losses of $44.8 million related to the Common Warrants during the year ended December 31, 2025.
The fair value of the Series J Warrants on December 31, 2025 was $12.3 million.
|
|
December 31, 2025 |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
Level 1 |
|
|
Level 2 |
|
|
Level 3 |
|
|
Total |
|
||||
Assets: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
Cash |
|
$ |
787,747 |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
787,747 |
|
Money market funds |
|
|
— |
|
|
|
5,219 |
|
|
|
— |
|
|
|
5,219 |
|
Time deposits |
|
|
100,008 |
|
|
|
— |
|
|
|
— |
|
|
|
100,008 |
|
Total financial assets |
|
$ |
887,755 |
|
|
$ |
5,219 |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
892,974 |
|
Liabilities: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
Series J Warrants |
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
12,294 |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
12,294 |
|
Total financial liabilities |
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
12,294 |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
12,294 |
|
During the year ended December 31, 2024, $0.1 million Warrants were issued. The fair value remeasurement of warrant liabilities resulted in an increase in fair value of $0.1 million as of December 31, 2024. No Warrants were exercised during the years ended December 31, 2024.
The fair value of the Series J Warrants, Common Warrants, and tranche obligations as of December 31, 2024, was $2.9 million, $1.2 million and $4.0 million, respectively. The carrying value of the Term Loans approximated their estimated fair value as of December 31, 2024.
|
|
December 31, 2024 |
|
|||||||||||||
|
|
Level 1 |
|
|
Level 2 |
|
|
Level 3 |
|
|
Total |
|
||||
Assets: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
Cash |
|
$ |
81,847 |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
81,847 |
|
Restricted cash |
|
|
14,127 |
|
|
|
— |
|
|
|
— |
|
|
|
14,127 |
|
Money market funds |
|
|
— |
|
|
|
41,584 |
|
|
|
— |
|
|
|
41,584 |
|
Majority Sponsor Top-Up |
|
|
— |
|
|
|
— |
|
|
|
170 |
|
|
|
170 |
|
Total financial assets |
|
$ |
95,974 |
|
|
$ |
41,584 |
|
|
$ |
170 |
|
|
$ |
137,728 |
|
Liabilities: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||||
Series J Warrants |
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
2,850 |
|
|
$ |
2,850 |
|
Common Warrants |
|
|
— |
|
|
|
— |
|
|
|
1,220 |
|
|
|
1,220 |
|
RPM Call Option |
|
|
— |
|
|
|
— |
|
|
|
4,159 |
|
|
|
4,159 |
|
Total financial liabilities |
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
— |
|
|
$ |
8,229 |
|
|
$ |
8,229 |
|
During the year ended December 31, 2025, the Company recorded $12.3 million in transfers from Level 3 to Level 2 due to an increase in available observable inputs in market data upon completion of the IPO. There were no transfers between levels within the fair value hierarchy during the year ended December 31, 2024.
About Fair Value Disclosures
Fair value disclosures classify all assets and liabilities measured at fair value into a three-level hierarchy: Level 1 (quoted market prices), Level 2 (observable inputs like yield curves), and Level 3 (unobservable inputs requiring management estimates). The proportion of Level 3 assets directly reflects how much of the balance sheet depends on internal models rather than market evidence.
Key signals: a growing Level 3 balance relative to total fair-value assets increases valuation uncertainty and earnings volatility risk. Watch for transfers between levels — assets moving from Level 2 to Level 3 often signal deteriorating market liquidity. Unrealized gains and losses on Level 3 positions flow through earnings or other comprehensive income, so large swings deserve scrutiny. For financial institutions, examine the sensitivity disclosures that show how Level 3 valuations change under alternative assumptions. Compare the fair value of debt against its carrying amount to gauge hidden leverage.